JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 97S.
29/08UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTHERN AUSTRALIA: INVEST 97S. REMAINS MEDIUM. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 29/06UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND/OR ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 KM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 290424Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION UPON ENTERING THE CORAL SEA NEAR CAIRNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION UPON ENTERING THE CORAL SEA NEAR CAIRNS.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. ADDED TO THE JTWC MAP AT 28/20UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 28/20UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND/OR ENLARGED.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 70 KM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281032Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING APPEARS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA WITH FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA WITH FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS.
