Invest 92W on the JTWC map, 23/06utc update

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 510 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY-DEFINED PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VWS AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW BOTH NORTH-EASTERLY AND SOUTH-WESTERLY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTH EAST AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTH WEST. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, A DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN VWS WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30-31C. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTH EAST AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTH WEST.