CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 91P.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 91P. LOCATION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 17/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 17/06UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 171.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 171.6E, APPROXIMATELY 575 KM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91P IS PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND DEVELOPMENT IS MARGINALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P WILL MEANDER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TAKE A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 91P WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
SH, 91, 2022051612,129S, 1714E, 20
SH, 91, 2022051618,133S, 1715E, 25
SH, 91, 2022051700,136S, 1716E, 25
SH, 91, 2022051706,138S, 1719E, 25
SH, 91, 2022051618,133S, 1715E, 25
SH, 91, 2022051700,136S, 1716E, 25
SH, 91, 2022051706,138S, 1719E, 25
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P WILL MEANDER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TAKE A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 91P WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
