JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 91P.
16/10UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC EAST OF THE DATELINE: INVEST 91P UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 16/10UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 154.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 156.4W, APPROXIMATELY 580 KM SOUTHWEST OF BORA-BORA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0528Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160735Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
