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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 91B.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
NORTH INDIAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 91B. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 09/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 09/02UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 92.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 082312Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A DEPRESSION-LIKE STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. 91B HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED, WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE BROADER CONVECTIVE CANOPY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31- 32C) SST. AS 91B CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO A WESTERLY WIND BURST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
AS 91B CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO A WESTERLY WIND BURST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 91S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 09/00UTC.
