NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 91B.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7N 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1235 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (05- 10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS ECMWF AND ICON ARE MUCH MORE RESERVED.
