Intensifying TC 07S(CLAUDIA) forecast to reach category 2 US in 36h



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TC 07S (CLAUDIA) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 12, 2020:
Location: 14.0°S 123.3°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 122.6E.
12JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
242 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN
112232Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOW A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW AND BASED ON A 120005Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWS 50 KNOTS. TC 07S IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH REMAINS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD IT WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS
THROUGH TAU 36 WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND TAU 36, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK WILL COOL
AND ALLOW FOR A STEADY WEAKENING OF TC 07S. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE MODELS SPREAD HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MODEL SPREAD IS NOW 112 NM BY TAU
48 AND IS NOW 230 NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
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WARNING 3. PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST/ 85KNOTS(CAT 2 US) IN 36H


 

01/12 0006UTC. ASCAT SHOWING AT LEAST 50KNOTS WINDS


 

01/11 2223UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTING RAGGED EYE BUILDING UP


 

MODELS STILL AGREE WELL ON THE FORECAST TRACK DESPITE INCREASING SPREAD AT +120H


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 12 Janvier 2020 à 09:00