Intense TC 06S(ANGGREK) peaking at CAT 4 US within 36h//TC 08S(CANDICE) Final Warning//ECMWF 10 Day Stom Tracks//2709utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 06S AND ON TC 08S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS TC 07P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL, AND DENSE SYSTEM WITH A RECENTLY CLOUD-COVERED PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 270402Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102KTS) WHICH IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF THIS MIDGET SYSTEM. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED 12-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU 48, AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES, THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 114NM BY TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SPREAD REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT AT 178NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALSO HIGH AND MEDIUM, RESPECTIVELY.

270900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 60.2E. 27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 539 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08S HAS UNRAVELED AND DISSIPATED UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.