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0530UTC.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 92B. LOCATION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 05/06UTC.ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 05/0230UTC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 30 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOMPAKA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050027 SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
IO, 92, 2022050412,63N, 946E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050418,74N, 942E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050500,83N, 937E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050506,89N, 936E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050418,74N, 942E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050500,83N, 937E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050506,89N, 936E, 15
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GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. LOCATION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 05/06UTC.ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 05/0230UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 90.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1830 KM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041417Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTARDLY AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
SH, 90, 2022050412,61S, 912E, 15
SH, 90, 2022050418,60S, 896E, 15
SH, 90, 2022050500,55S, 881E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050506,49S, 869E, 20
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GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTARDLY AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 04/18UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 04/18UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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ISSUED AT 05/03. NOAA.
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