Impressive Super Typhoon 02W(MAWAR) is peaking at CAT 5 US over the Philippine Sea//Remnants of TC 19S(FABIEN)//2521utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON STY 02W(MAWAR).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE COMPACT AS IT MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 22-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG RADIAL VENTILATION ALOFT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 72 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 120NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO 250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.