INVEST 96S: poorly organized. Downgraded to low



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INVEST 96S  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 19, 2019:

Location: 14.9°S 70.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 191730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
190300)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190300). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 70.4E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 752 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A 191219Z MHS
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME WITH FLARING CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LLCC. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH (25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 20 Décembre 2019 à 00:08