meteo





INVEST 91W and INVEST 96S under watch


Both areas are LOW for the next 24 hours


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 22, 2019:

Location: 24.8°N 135.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt ( 30km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
24.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A 230012Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH WEAK (10-20 KNOTS) CORE
WINDS AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT
180NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL TYPE
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WHICH IS POSITIONED WITHIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT BUT VENTING EAST OF THE
LLCC WHICH IS FUELING THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SST VALUES
OF 28-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A WARM-CORE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (SOUTH INDIAN)

INVEST 96S
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 23, 2019:

Location: 9.7°S 71.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt ( 30km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2S 74.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 70.8E APPROXIMATELY 102 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 89GHZ MHS METOP-A IMAGE SHOW A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96S IN A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH(>25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH VERY MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, BEYOND 24 HOURS,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL MAINLY CAUSE 96S TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

23/00UTC
23/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 23 Juillet 2019 à 12:05