DANILO(08S) is slowly approaching the Mascarenes, slightly improved satellite signature, 07/03utc update


TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT 24H BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT
48H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT
96H BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER SEAS (26C).


TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK  GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK  INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT 24H BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT  48H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT  96H BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS  COOLER SEAS (26C).
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT 24H BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT 48H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT 96H BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER SEAS (26C).
TC 08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1680 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS/MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 07 0245UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 16
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 07, 2021:
Location: 16.3°S 72.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 72.1E.
07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
906 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062345Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOW SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN
BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GMI IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTING ASCAT
DATA. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28C. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AT TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT
TAU 96 DUE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER SSTS (26C). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. BEYOND TAU
72, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

07/0230UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062345Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOW SLIGHT  IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN  BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
07/0230UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062345Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.


07/0156UTC. DMSP. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
07/0156UTC. DMSP. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

07/00UTC. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN AN IMPROVING WIND-SHEAR AREA.
07/00UTC. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN AN IMPROVING WIND-SHEAR AREA.

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. EUROPEAN MODEL.
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. EUROPEAN MODEL.

TRACK GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE TARGETING THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
TRACK GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE TARGETING THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.


INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING PROBABLE SLIGHT INTENSITICATION TREND NEXT 96H BUT WITH FLUCTUATIONS.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING PROBABLE SLIGHT INTENSITICATION TREND NEXT 96H BUT WITH FLUCTUATIONS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 7 Janvier 2021 à 07:25