DANILO(08S) : forecast to approach the Mascarane islands next 5 days as a weak system, remnants of 09P upgraded to Low


TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE-
INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 96H, BUT THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME.


TC 08S WARNING 14. TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE  FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE- INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 96H, BUT THERE IS  LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE  CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME.
TC 08S WARNING 14. TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE- INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 96H, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME.
2021 JAN 06 0230UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 14
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 06, 2021:
Location: 16.9°S 76.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
WEAKENING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 75.6E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052314Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T3.0/45 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT
27-28C. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UP
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, BUT WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND COOLER SSTS. TC 08S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE-
INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 96, BUT THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN
---------------------------------------
REMNANTS OF TC #09P #IMOGEN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 06, 2021:
Location: 18.2°S 146.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.2S 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 052101Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS, REVEAL AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TC 09P MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER
WATER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

05/2314UTC. TC 08S. THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED BUT WAS ALMOST DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
05/2314UTC. TC 08S. THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED BUT WAS ALMOST DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.

TC 08S.TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM MUCH RIGHT NOW.
TC 08S.TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM MUCH RIGHT NOW.

TC 08S TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO ECMWF.
TC 08S TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO ECMWF.

TC 08S.TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANE. UKMET IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MORE POLEWARD.
TC 08S.TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANE. UKMET IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MORE POLEWARD.

06/0115UTC. JTWC HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF TC 09P(IMOGEN) WHICH IS BACK OVER OPEN WATER APPROXIMATELY 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
06/0115UTC. JTWC HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF TC 09P(IMOGEN) WHICH IS BACK OVER OPEN WATER APPROXIMATELY 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.

REMNANTS OF TC 09P. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NO DEVELOPMENT HINTED AT BY GFS WHICH IS PUSHING THE REMNANTS BACK OVER LAND.
REMNANTS OF TC 09P. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NO DEVELOPMENT HINTED AT BY GFS WHICH IS PUSHING THE REMNANTS BACK OVER LAND.

06/0245UTC. TC 08S. SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED FOR THE PAST 12HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS DEALING WITH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. PH.
06/0245UTC. TC 08S. SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED FOR THE PAST 12HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS DEALING WITH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. PH.

06/0245UTC. REMNANTS OF TC 09S OFF CAIRNS. PH.
06/0245UTC. REMNANTS OF TC 09S OFF CAIRNS. PH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 6 Janvier 2021 à 07:00