DANILO(08S): 550km NE of Rodrigues, slightly intensified, approaching the Mascarenes, 08/03utc update


08S(DANILO) CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. 08S(DANILO) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.


08S(DANILO) CONTINUES TO  SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP  CONVECTION.08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
08S(DANILO) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION.08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 KM NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN/RODRIGUES HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 08 0235UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 18
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 08, 2021:
Location: 17.1°S 67.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 67.3E.
08JAN21. 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
629 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A BROADLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 072035Z AMSR2
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE
REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER WITH 5-7 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 38 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). THIS,
ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5(35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
VALUES (27-28C). ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, TC 08S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
205NM AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 405NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE INDIVIDUAL
MODEL TRACKERS THUS FAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REMAINED
CHALLENGING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR MADAGASCAR BY TAU 120 AS SST COOLS TO 26C. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE
SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP  CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A BROADLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A BROADLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.


SHEAR TENDANCY IS ONCE AGAIN LESS FAVOURABLE NEAR THE TC BUT IS IMPROVING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
SHEAR TENDANCY IS ONCE AGAIN LESS FAVOURABLE NEAR THE TC BUT IS IMPROVING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

08/0143UTC. DMSP. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
08/0143UTC. DMSP. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

07/18UTC. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS/RÉUNION.
07/18UTC. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS/RÉUNION.

07/18UTC. HWRF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TARGET THE MAURITIUS AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF  360KM AT 72H INCREASING TO 750KM BY 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST IS  HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE  TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE INDIVIDUAL  MODEL TRACKERS THUS FAR.
07/18UTC. HWRF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TARGET THE MAURITIUS AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 360KM AT 72H INCREASING TO 750KM BY 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKERS THUS FAR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REMAINED  CHALLENGING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK  INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GRADUAL  WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD  DISSIPATE NEAR MADAGASCAR BY TAU 120 AS SST COOLS TO 26C. HOWEVER,  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE  SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REMAINED CHALLENGING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR MADAGASCAR BY TAU 120 AS SST COOLS TO 26C. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 8 Janvier 2021 à 07:45