Cyclone Kyarr(04A) strong category 4 could reach Super Cyclone status shortly



TC KYARR(04A) STRONG CATEGORY 4 US
TC KYARR(04A) STRONG CATEGORY 4 US
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NORTH INDIAN

TC Kyarr(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 27, 2019:

Location: 17.0°N 68.3°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 4

REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 68.0E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 262330Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A 262023Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 04A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, REACHING 135 KNOTS BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH WHEN PAIRED WITH THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TC 04A TO DEVELOP BEYOND 135 KTS. BY TAU 24, SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE TC 04A, REDUCING INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT PAST TAU 72 WITH A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION BETWEEN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (GFS AND NAVGEM) AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE SECOND RIDGE (AFUM, UKMET AND ECMWF). BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD IS 436NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK PAST TAU 48 BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE SECONDARY SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 37 FEET.

PEAK INTENSITY OF 135KTS(SUPER CYCLONE) FORECAST WITHIN 12H
PEAK INTENSITY OF 135KTS(SUPER CYCLONE) FORECAST WITHIN 12H

CLICK TO ANIMATE
CLICK TO ANIMATE

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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 123KTS AT +12H
HWRF: 123KTS AT +12H

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 27 Octobre 2019 à 08:01