Cyclone FANI(01B) category 3 US, possible landfall near Puri/India shortly after 48hours(VIDEO)


Warning 17/JTWC


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SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATION JUST BELOW

TC FANI(01B)
As of 00:00 UTC May 01, 2019:

Location: 13.9°N 83.9°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY 3 US


REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)  01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS CORE CONVECTION AROUND A
SMALL, RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. A 302158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0-T6.0 (90-115 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. A 302332Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS), HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B
HAS BEGUN TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) OVER BANGLADESH CONTINUES TO ERODE DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NEAR
TAU 48, TC 01B WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH LAND AND THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PULLED EAST, FOLLOWING
THE EARLIER TRENDS OF ECMWF AND NAVGEM, INDICATING A QUICKLY
WEAKENING STR TO THE EAST OF TC 01B. THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z,
012100Z AND 020300Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 1 Mai 2019 à 10:08