https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/
SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATION JUST BELOW
Location: 13.5°N 84.3°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. A
301557Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE EYE. A PARTIAL 301559Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. A 301556Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS), HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. TC FANI IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS AN EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER BANGLADESH ERODES DUE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 72, TC 01B WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL AND INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN
TO SPREAD APART, WITH A 100NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SWUNG TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS AS THE STR TO ITS EAST
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATION JUST BELOW
Location: 13.5°N 84.3°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. A
301557Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE EYE. A PARTIAL 301559Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. A 301556Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS), HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. TC FANI IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS AN EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER BANGLADESH ERODES DUE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 72, TC 01B WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL AND INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN
TO SPREAD APART, WITH A 100NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SWUNG TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS AS THE STR TO ITS EAST
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
