JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 93P.
11/0230UTC.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 96W. UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 11/0230UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 710 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. THE POSITION WAS MOVED APPROXIMATELY 370 KM TO THE WEST BASED ON ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE DATA REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING WITH DISORGANIZED, YET PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE FAVORABLE SUPPORTED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48HRS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48HRS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 93P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 10/2130UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 KM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON SEA, THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA OF INTENSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRESENT. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED AT 101800Z PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE. A 101953Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL WEAK BANDING, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. 93P IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND HUNKERING OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE VORTEX. HOWEVER, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EXHAUST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW 93P TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW 93P TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
SOUTHERN HEMPISHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 02S(TERATAI).
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTHERN AUSTRALIA: INVEST 95S. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND IS NOT ON THE JTWC MAP YET.
GSF AT +72H DEPICTING INVEST 96W AND INVEST 93P AS INTENSIFYING CYCLONES.
