93P now TC 08P(TINO), gradually intensifying and rapidly approaching Fiji



CLICK TO ANIMATE.

TC 08P(TINO) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 16, 2020:
Location: 13.7°S 177.8°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 178.3E.
16JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. EIR ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 161714Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE BUT CLEARLY
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW
WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER AND NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF 29C
REMAIN FAVORABLE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A RELATIVELY SIMPLE STEERING PATTERN WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 WITH A 40-45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 145NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C) AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, SST VALUES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
(20C) AND VWS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS (30-40 KNOTS), WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 08P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72
AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152100).//
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WARNING 1: FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 60KNOTS IN 36H


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK


 

01/16 2020UTC


 

01/16 18UTC


01/16 18UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 17 Janvier 2020 à 01:14