25P(HAROLD) over Northern Vanuatu as a CAT 4 US/ 24S(IRONDRO) weakening rapidly



TC 25P . CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.

CIRA
CIRA
2020 APR 05 0940UTC SOUTH PACIFIC & SOUTH INDIAN

TC #25P #HAROLD SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 05, 2020:
Location: 15.6°S 165.5°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt
Gusts : 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 950 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.6E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE HAS REFORMED AS UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 10NM
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102KTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN AND THE
050626Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AS WARM SSTS (29C) AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) PREVAIL. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND
LATER ON, COOLING SSTS, TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 120. BY TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 35
FEET.

TC #24S #IRONDRO
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 05, 2020:
Location: 24.2°S 84.3°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt
Gusts : 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 84.9E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1644 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS DRY AIR WRAPS INTO THE CIRCULATION AND SHEAR BEGINS TO OFFSET THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 050408Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T4.5/77KTS. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG (25-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING
SSTS. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,
BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

TC 25P. WARNING 11. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 115KT( CAT 4 US) WITHIN 24H.

JTWC
JTWC


TC 25P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


TC 25P: SMAP AT 05/07UTC. 10MN WINDS: 89KT

NASA
NASA

 

TC 24S: WARNING 7. FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY NEXT 36H.

JTWC
JTWC

 

TC 24S: AT 05/0641UTC


TC 24S: TRACK AND FORECAST INTENSITY.


05/0545UTC

JTWC
JTWC

05/00UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 5 Avril 2020 à 14:18