21UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) category 2 US is now weakening over the open seas of the South Indian Ocean


Warning 16/JTWC


Warning 16/JTWC
Warning 16/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 17, 2019:

Location: 16.4°S 90.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115kt ( 215km/h)

REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME LOST AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS DECAYED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM 171449Z METOP-A AND 171600Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGES WHICH REVEAL A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND A CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS FALLS BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS). THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE AT 26-27 CELSIUS. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 19S WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HOSTILE, AND STEADY
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR, UNTIL TC 19S DISSIPATES PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE CONSENSUS TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE NORTHERN (UKMET AND GALWEM)
AND SOUTHERN (NAVGEM) OUTLIERS THAT CAUSE THE SPREAD TO EXCEED 300
NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
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21UTC
21UTC

2030UTC
2030UTC

1447UTC
1447UTC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Mars 2019 à 02:00