21UTC: South Indian: TC VERONICA(21S) has formed, expected to intensify rapidly next 48h north-west of Western Australia


Warning 1/JTWC


WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 14.9°S 119.7°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191743Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED UNDER OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR 95E IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STR
EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL
TURN TC 21S ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER
TAU 72, A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE SYSTEM ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND PRODUCE A WESTWARD TRACK CHANGE
AFTER TAU 120. THIS COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR LEARMONTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120 DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING, COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 72 THEN SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190300).//
NNNN

1843UTC
1843UTC

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

2056UTC
2056UTC

 

19UTC
19UTC

1923UTC
1923UTC

1711UTC
1711UTC


HWRF AT 12UTC: 116KT AT +126H
HWRF AT 12UTC: 116KT AT +126H

GFS AT 12UTC: 110KT AT +90H
GFS AT 12UTC: 110KT AT +90H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 01:29