21UTC: South Indian: TC SAVANNAH(19S), flaring convection, cyclone still figthing vertical wind shear


WARNING 24/JTWC


2024UTC. LUNAR REFLECTION. CONVECTION TRYING TO BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER BUT CYCLONE STILL DEALING WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
2024UTC. LUNAR REFLECTION. CONVECTION TRYING TO BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER BUT CYCLONE STILL DEALING WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 18.6°S 84.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 987 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN THE CENTER OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 191447Z OSCAT PASS INDICATING 35-40 KNOT
WINDS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. A FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION, FUELED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT, HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WEAKEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
ONGOING VWS UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WARNING 24/JTWC
WARNING 24/JTWC

WARNING 24/JTWC
WARNING 24/JTWC

2024UTC
2024UTC

1853UTC
1853UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 02:42