21UTC: JOANINHA(22S) category 3 US still intensifying and forecast to track 55km east Cotton Bay/ROD near noon/local time


Warning 16/JTWC


WARNING 16/JTWC
WARNING 16/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 25, 2019:

Location: 18.5°S 63.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CATEGORY 3 US  INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL STRONG CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE INCLUDING A RAGGED PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL IS
POSITION PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR
TILT BY LINING UP WITH DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE
251437Z CORIOLIS AND 251703Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS  BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS
FROM PGTW ANS KNES. TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

21UTC: intense bands(red) are very close to ROD.
21UTC: intense bands(red) are very close to ROD.

WARNING 16/JTWC: FORECAST CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO RODRIGUES: 55KM TO THE EAST COAST
WARNING 16/JTWC: FORECAST CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO RODRIGUES: 55KM TO THE EAST COAST

21UTC
21UTC


20UTC
20UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Mars 2019 à 02:19