15UTC: typhoon Wutip(02W) Category 2 US, intensifying and approaching Guam


Warning 10/JTWC


2019 FEB 21 1505UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 85knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 10/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 10 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 21, 2019:
Location: 7.1°N 148.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTENSIFING AS RAIN BANDS
WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A DEEP AND MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH A RAGGED FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 211100Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM RJTD AND
T5.0/90KTS PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 02W IS IN A STRONG
WESTWARD/POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS
IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS FLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AT 29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL AND FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AT ABOVE NORMAL RATE,
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT NEARS GUAM. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS DECREASE, OFFSETTING
THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 500
NM AT ITS WIDEST AS ECMF, AFUM, AND CTCX PRESENT A BIFURCATION
SOLUTION AND ARE DRIVING THE VORTEX ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALSO VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE OUTLIERS.//
NNNN


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 21 Février 2019 à 19:15