15UTC: TC SAVANNAH: final warning, maximum intensity reached was 100knots, category 3 US


Warning 30/JTWC


WARNING 30/JTWC
WARNING 30/JTWC
ex TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 21, 2019:

Location: 19.8°S 83.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 210600Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE TIGHT
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS). TC 19S NO LONGER HAS AN EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT STILL HAS A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AND THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION, TC 19S IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 19S TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
JMV FIE/JTWC
1919031100 109S1066E  25
1919031106 106S1053E  20
1919031112 104S1041E  20
1919031118 100S1025E  20
1919031200 100S1017E  20
1919031206  91S1002E  20
1919031212  89S 991E  20
1919031218  84S 977E  20
1919031300  87S 977E  20
1919031306  97S 975E  20
1919031312 104S 968E  25
1919031318 110S 966E  30
1919031400 115S 963E  35
1919031406 121S 960E  40
1919031412 126S 958E  40
1919031418 131S 954E  45
1919031500 135S 951E  45
1919031506 139S 949E  50
1919031512 144S 948E  55
1919031518 147S 943E  60
1919031600 148S 938E  60
1919031606 151S 934E  65
1919031612 153S 930E  75
1919031618 156S 923E  85
1919031700 160S 916E  95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E  95
1919031800 168S 895E  85
1919031806 173S 890E  75
1919031812 177S 882E  60
1919031818 179S 874E  45
1919031900 181S 866E  45
1919031906 182S 857E  40
1919031912 183S 851E  40
1919031918 186S 846E  40
1919032000 190S 840E  40
1919032006 192S 838E  40
1919032012 194S 842E  40
1919032018 195S 847E  40
1919032100 197S 847E  40
1919032106 198S 843E  35
1919032112 198S 836E  30
NNNN

WARNING 30/JTWC
WARNING 30/JTWC

09UTC
09UTC

0820UTC
0820UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 21 Mars 2019 à 19:50