1324UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.3°S 117.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt (260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED AND THE EYE BECAME
OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 211005Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5/102KTS TO
T6.5/127KTS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
15KTS; HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 66. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP
TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 17.3°S 117.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt (260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED AND THE EYE BECAME
OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 211005Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5/102KTS TO
T6.5/127KTS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
15KTS; HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 66. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP
TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 8/JTWC
WARNING 8/JTWC
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