15UTC: JOANINHA(22S) still top category 3 US forecast to weaken slowly next 24hours


Warning 23/JTWC


WARN23./JTWC
WARN23./JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 27, 2019:

Location: 20.3°S 66.9°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 947 mb
CATEGORY 3 US  FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY NEXT 24H

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN APPROXIMATELY 15-NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 271133Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102-115 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE STR WILL BECOME DOMINANT AND CAUSE A
POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. AFTER TURNING POLEWARD, THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. BY TAU 96, INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BUT
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN MORE
RAPIDLY, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL VWS BECOMES MORE HOSTILE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND UKMET, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD
ALONG-TRACK SPEED BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CROSS TRACK SPREAD.
GALWEM AND UKMET FOLLOW THE OTHER MEMBERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT
FAIL TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AFTER MAKING THE TURN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS FOR TAU 96 AND 120
TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 27 Mars 2019 à 20:14