15UTC: Cyclone POLA(16P) Category 2 US, weakening steadily and being extratropical in 48hours


Warning 11/JTWC


1005UTC
1005UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 28 15UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #POLA #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 90knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 11/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 11 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 24.4°S 178.2°W
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 5NM EYE. A 281156Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST (27C) VALUES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24,
AFTER WHICH TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND TURN EASTWARD. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU
24, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL AND GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT TO TRACK MOTION
AFTER TAU 36. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC
TRACK FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL
FORECAST GROUPING. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z,
010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 28 Février 2019 à 19:11