11P(KIMI) is slowly approaching Townsville, 12S(ELOISE) is slowly intensifying and approaching NorthEast Madagascar,18/03utc update


THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.


THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.


11P(KIMI). WARNING 5. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN  THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENISFY  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM  MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING  SHEAR, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TOWNSVILLE. AFTER  LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN  AND ULTIMATELY  DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 72H.
11P(KIMI). WARNING 5. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENISFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TOWNSVILLE. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 72H.
2021 JAN 18 0330UTC
TC #11P #KIM #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
WARNING 5
Location: 17.1°S 146.7°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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2021 JAN 17 0730UTC
TC #10S #JOSHUA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
WARNING 6
Location: 19.7°S 87.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
UPDATE
Location: 13.4°S 58.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

10S(JOSHUA). WARNING 6. 10S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS  UNDER MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO  INCREASING CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,  INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS OVER WATER BY 48H
10S(JOSHUA). WARNING 6. 10S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS OVER WATER BY 48H

12S(ELOISE). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 17/21UTC. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT 18/09UTC. INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH FORECAST LANDFALL SOUTH OF ANTALAHA/MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER 19/18UTC.
12S(ELOISE). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 17/21UTC. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT 18/09UTC. INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH FORECAST LANDFALL SOUTH OF ANTALAHA/MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER 19/18UTC.

18/0230UTC
18/0230UTC

11P(KIMI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE  DISPLAYS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A SPLIT DECISION ON AN  EASTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK. THE HWRF, ECMWF AND GALWEM ULTIMATELY TURN  THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND  GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF  THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS BRING THE SYSTEM TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION  BY 36H AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS  SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS ONCE MORE BUT REMAINS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TURNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER AUSTRALIA AFTER  36H AS IT WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE  SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
11P(KIMI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A SPLIT DECISION ON AN EASTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK. THE HWRF, ECMWF AND GALWEM ULTIMATELY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS BRING THE SYSTEM TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BY 36H AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS ONCE MORE BUT REMAINS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TURNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER AUSTRALIA AFTER 36H AS IT WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

10S(JOSHUA). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 95KM SPREAD AT  48H.
10S(JOSHUA). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 95KM SPREAD AT 48H.

12S(ELOISE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD  AGREEMENT WITH 150KM SPREAD AT 48H, INCREASING TO 260KM AT 120H,  LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
12S(ELOISE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 150KM SPREAD AT 48H, INCREASING TO 260KM AT 120H, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Janvier 2021 à 07:45