10S(JOSHUA) is weakening due to dry air entrainment, 18/15utc update


10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48H.THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.


WARNING 7. 10S IS  FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST  PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO  DISSIPATE BY 48H.
WARNING 7. 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48H.
2021 JAN 18 1635UTC
TC #10S #JOSHUA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
WARNING 7
Location: 19.5°S 86.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WEAKENING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

18/1038UTC. DMSP.SATELLITE  IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER  (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT  DEEP CONVECTION.
18/1038UTC. DMSP.SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

18/1537UTC. ASCAT READ WEAKENING WINDS REACHING ONLY 30KNOT SOUTH OF THE LOW CIRCULATION CENTER.
18/1537UTC. ASCAT READ WEAKENING WINDS REACHING ONLY 30KNOT SOUTH OF THE LOW CIRCULATION CENTER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT  LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Janvier 2021 à 20:55