09UTC: VERONICA(21S): intensity forecast to fall below 35knots in 36h


Warning 23/JTWC


WARNING 23/JTWC
WARNING 23/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 25, 2019:

Location: 20.4°S 117.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
WEAKENING

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED
PRIMARILY ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH REPORTED 36 KTS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 250600Z AND WERE 40 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS AT
250300Z. TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH
HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 110NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0747UTC
0747UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Mars 2019 à 15:57