WARNING 11/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.8°S 116.7°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A 10NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE THAT LINED UP PRECISELY WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS FROM REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES
AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TURN SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
ABOUT 35 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 42. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 36 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 17.8°S 116.7°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A 10NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE THAT LINED UP PRECISELY WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS FROM REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES
AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TURN SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
ABOUT 35 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 42. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 36 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
0807UTC
0810UTC
0630UTC
0709UTC
0653UTC
0653UTC
