09UTC: TC WALLACE(23S): intensity forecast to fall below 35knots in 36hours(maybe sooner)


Warning 18/JTWC


WARNING 18/JTWC
WARNING 18/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC WALLACE(23S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 09, 2019:

Location: 16.2°S 114.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH ASCAT
DATA FROM 090101Z AND 090213Z, WHICH INDICATED 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. TC 23S HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 23S IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND DISSIPATE UNDER
PERSISTENT VWS. BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED VWS
PATTERN, THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT AND BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF PERSISTENT VWS,
THE NAVGEM OUTLIER SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND CURRENT
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z.//
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0830UTC
0830UTC

0830UTC
0830UTC


0710UTC
0710UTC

0726UTC
0726UTC

06UTC
06UTC

0535UTC
0535UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 9 Avril 2019 à 15:22