09UTC: TC WALLACE(23S) forecast to intensify slowly next 48hours and remain over open seas

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TC WALLACE(23S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 06, 2019:
Location: 12.3°S 124.2°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 123.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 833 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 060502Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO THE STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-45
KNOT WINDS, WHICH COINCIDES WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND APRF. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE
FORECAST WITH A 123NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. TC 23S SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES.
AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 430NM AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE MODELS
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
WHILE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72;
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z
AND 070900Z.//
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