09UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) intensifying rapidly over the Coral Sea, landfall expected shortly after 24hours close to Lockhart/Queensland


Warning 3/JTWC: cyclone may re-intensify significantly once over the Gulf of Carpentaria


WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:

Location: 12.3°S 145.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 144.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA (CS) THAT HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS
EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED INTO A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS TO
T3.5/55KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 20P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA
AROUND TAU 24 AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD,
ALLOWING TC 20P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL IN THE GOC COAST NEAR BORROLOOLA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE CS WILL PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN THE NEAR
TERM - UP TO 70 KNOTS - PRIOR TO THE INITIAL LANDFALL. AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION IN THE YORK PENINSULA WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
55 KNOTS. THE GOC WILL EQUALLY BE FAVORABLE AND PROMOTE A SECOND RI -
UP TO 95 KNOTS - BY TAU 96 BEFORE THE FINAL LANDFALL. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS SMALL
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO
CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF
LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND INTERACTION LEND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

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0830UTC
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0830UTC
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06UTC
06UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Mars 2019 à 14:09