09UTC: TC TREVOR(20P): close to moving back over sea, expected to intensify rapidly next 48h over Gulf of Carpentaria


WARNING 11/JTWC


0620UTC
0620UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:

Location: 13.0°S 141.9°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
OVERLAND

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS TC 20P
HAS TRACKED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM WEIPA,
AUSTRALIA WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONTINUING WEAKENING TREND WHILE
OVER LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS), HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND AN EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT TO THE EAST BY TAU 24 AND
ALLOW TC 20P TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION THROUGH TAU 6
WILL CAUSE TC 20P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO
RE-INTENSIFY AT A STEADY TO RAPID PACE BEYOND TAU 6. TC 20P WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC 20P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 AND THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR, BUT JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 11/JTWC
WARNING 11/JTWC

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 72H
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 72H

WARNING 11/JTWC
WARNING 11/JTWC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 13:16