09UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) category 1 US is weakeing over the open seas of the South Indian Ocean


Warning 18/JTWC


WARN18/JTWC
WARN18/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:

Location: 17.2°S 88.9°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb

WEAKENING
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS DEEP RAIN BANDS
UNRAVELED AND THE EYE, ALBEIT DISCERNIBLE, BECAME CLOUD-FILLED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED TILT BY LINING UP WITH A SEMI CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
180338Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW,
FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C.
HOWEVER, COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE MEMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREAD OUT TO 240NM BY TAU 96. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, IS HIGH IN
THE NEAR TERM THEN LOW BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//
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WARNING 18/JTWC
WARNING 18/JTWC

10UTC
10UTC

06UTC. FY2G
06UTC. FY2G

 





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Mars 2019 à 14:38