09UTC: South Indian: TC VERONICA(21S) intensifying rapidly next 48h to the north-west of Western Australia


Warning 3/JTWC


0920UTC
0920UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:

Location: 15.6°S 118.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt (130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 200556Z 36 GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5. TC 21S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 21S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 24,
THE STR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TC 21S TO BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWARD BY TAU 36. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 21S TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKERS
SHOW A WESTWARD TURN AT TAU 96 WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND HAS A SPREAD OF 75 NM. HOWEVER, BY TAU
120 THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 280 NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z,
210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

0830UTC
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06UTC
06UTC

0308UTC
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 14:00