08S(DANILO) Final warning issued but the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration



WARNING 20. FINAL WARNING. ASSESSED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 70KNOTS, US CATEGORY 1 THE 05TH OF JANUARY.
WARNING 20. FINAL WARNING. ASSESSED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 70KNOTS, US CATEGORY 1 THE 05TH OF JANUARY.
08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750
KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS/MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM JTWC.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MONITORING WITH REGULAR UPDATES
WILL BE POSTED ON THIS PAGE.
2021 JAN 09 03UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 20
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 09, 2021:
Location: 18.4°S 64.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
JMV FILE
0820122906 104S 705E  20
0820122912 104S 718E  20
0820122918 109S 727E  20
0820123000 114S 728E  20
0820123006 117S 727E  20
0820123012 120S 726E  20
0820123018 121S 723E  25
0820123100 123S 721E  25
0820123106 121S 724E  25
0820123112 119S 725E  25
0820123118 120S 726E  25
0821010100 122S 726E  25
0821010106 120S 722E  30
0821010112 116S 720E  35
0821010118 112S 719E  40
0821010200 109S 720E  40
0821010206 109S 722E  45
0821010212 110S 723E  45
0821010218 111S 724E  45
0821010300 113S 728E  50
0821010300 113S 728E  50
0821010306 115S 734E  55
0821010318 128S 753E  55
0821010400 138S 758E  55
0821010406 147S 761E  50
0821010412 154S 762E  50
0821010418 157S 763E  50
0821010500 161S 766E  65
0821010506 164S 766E  65
0821010512 165S 766E  70
0821010518 166S 765E  60
0821010600 166S 760E  45
0821010606 165S 753E  40
0821010612 164S 745E  35
0821010618 163S 736E  35
0821010700 163S 727E  35
0821010706 163S 714E  35
0821010712 164S 702E  35
0821010718 167S 690E  40
0821010800 172S 680E  40
0821010806 176S 673E  35
0821010812 180S 666E  30
0821010818 182S 656E  30
0821010900 184S 642E  25
NNNN
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 63.8E.
08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750
KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
090017Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW, WITH ONLY TWO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE TOWERS AMID
OTHERWISE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 25 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY A FMEE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0/2.0 (25-30 KNOTS), AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT VWS IS GENERALLY LOW (5-10 KTS), HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING POOR OUTFLOW SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING TO BETWEEN 26-27 DEG C. THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC.
TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH 32NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FLAT, WITH THE 10-MEMBER COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STEADY OR
WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

09/0155UTC. MICROWAVE SIGNATURE REVEALS A WEAKELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CERTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
09/0155UTC. MICROWAVE SIGNATURE REVEALS A WEAKELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CERTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

09/0315UTC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
09/0315UTC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

08/18UTC. THE EUROPEAN MODEL TRACKS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE MAURITIUS/RÉUNION AREA
08/18UTC. THE EUROPEAN MODEL TRACKS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE MAURITIUS/RÉUNION AREA

08/18UTC. GFS TRACKS A WEAKENING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS/RÉUNION.
08/18UTC. GFS TRACKS A WEAKENING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS/RÉUNION.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF MEMBERS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 9 Janvier 2021 à 07:45