07S(CLAUDIA) still a category 1 US but intensifying over open waters



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TC 07S (CLAUDIA) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 13, 2020:
Location: 16.2°S 117.2°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 116.4E.
13JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
259 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND IS BASED ON A 122220Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ADT
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.4 (75 KNOTS) AND HEDGED
BETWEEN THE DVORAK CI ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW AND THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
THIS IS OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR AND STORM MOTION REMAIN IN-
PHASE. TC 07S CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S
IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
TROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, TC
07S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE
OUTFLOW BECOMES CONSTRICTED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 80 NM. BY TAU 120, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 290 NM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAINS THE OUTLIER TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING A WEST
TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96 AS A SECONDARY STR BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
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01/13 0126UTC. ASCAT READ TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS.


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF STILL DEPICTS POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 13 Janvier 2020 à 09:00