04UTC: South Pacific: Invest 95P north of Pago Pago may develop within 24hours


The area is upgraded to Medium by the JTWC.


95P IS NOW MEDIUM
95P IS NOW MEDIUM
2019 Feb 24 04h30UTC

INVEST #95P

As of 00:00 UTC Feb 24, 2019:
Location: 9.5°S 174.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 240130
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.1S 175.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 174.5W, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232116Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 232117Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, BUT
WEAKER WINDS AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 36-72
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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04UTC
04UTC

 


MODEL AT 18UTC
MODEL AT 18UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 24 Février 2019 à 08:37