04P( Sarai) tracking apprx 200km South of Suva/Fiji and intensifying



TC 04P. CLICK TO ANIMATE.

TC 04P( SARAI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 27, 2019:

Location: 18.7°S 176.1°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 176.4E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BULLSEYE 270944Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 34 AND 50 KT
WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES FROM T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T4.0 (65 KTS) DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 45-50 KT WINDS AND A SMALL
POCKET OF 50-55 KT WINDS. WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. TC 04P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 120, THE ORIENTATION
OF THE NER WILL CAUSE TC 04P TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE COOL SST AND
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG VWS WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH NAVGEM
AND ECMWF DEPICTING A MEANDERING TRACK THAT REMAINS NEAR VITI LEVU
ISLAND WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS SHOW AN EASTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
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COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 US (65KNOTS) WITHIN 24H


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 27 Décembre 2019 à 21:52