2019 FEB 20 0245UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 70knots TC, CAT1 US.
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 70knots TC, CAT1 US.
WARNING 33/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 33 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.4°S 161.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 968 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE,
RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING
TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 33 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.4°S 161.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 968 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE,
RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING
TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
Click to animate the image.
