03UTC: cyclone OMA(15P): forecast to dissipate(below 35knots) in 2 days


Warning 41/JTWC


0310UTC. ENHANCED BY METEO974.RE
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2019 FEB 22 0340UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 40knots TC.
WARNING 41/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 41 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2019:
Location: 25.7°S 159.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND
NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD
BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS
TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE
AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP
RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT
THOUGH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM
BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN



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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 22 Février 2019 à 07:55