03UTC: WUTIP(02W) weakening rapidly over open seas


Warning 36/JTWC


0130UTC
0130UTC
No threat to any land.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 28 0215UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 35knots TC.
WARNING 36/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 36 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 17.1°N 136.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ONLY SMALL
AREAS OF REMNANT CONVECTION FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AND IS ABOVE THE
PGTW ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). WHILE THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED, IT
IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING SEVERELY UNFAVORABLE (40-50 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO BEING SITUATED UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 02W
IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 25 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, THEN SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY
TAU 36 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES THE
WEAK CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN





 


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 28 Février 2019 à 06:15