03UTC: VERONICA(21S) gradually approaching Port Hedland as a category 1 US.


Warning 14/JTWC


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 23, 2019:

Location: 18.7°S 117.0°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt (185km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb
CATEGORY 1US

REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 117.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A LARGE 41NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT
PORT HEDLAND SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. TC 21S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY
TRACK CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF
THE WESTWARD TURN WITH A 95NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Mars 2019 à 08:22