03UTC: Typhoon WUTIP(02W) ,Category 4 US, slow-moving and forecast to weaken rapidly after 24hours, no threat to land


Warning 28/JTWC


No threat to any land.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html 2019 FEB 26 0240UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 120knots TC, CAT4 US.
WARNING 28/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 28 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 14.9°N 139.9°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt (220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt (270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 940 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES WUTIP HAS MAINTAINED A PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED
18 NMI EYE, HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
A 252350Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE 5.5 DATA-T VALUE, AS WELL AS AUTOMATED
OBJECTIVE FIXES FROM ADT AND SATCON. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 26 TO 27C AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STILL 15 KNOTS OR LESS
CURRENTLY. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TOWARD A BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT COMMENCES, AS EVIDENCED IN THE CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  AFTER TAU 24, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING
VWS SHOULD BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND ASSUME STEERING.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY WUTIP WILL TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  SSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALONG THE TRACK, FURTHER ADDING TO THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE BAMS MODELS SUGGEST THAT IF WUTIP DOES NOT BEGIN WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 24, A DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN A
RECURVE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY, HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
WEST LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
 GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY TAU 96, IF NOT SOONER,
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  DUE TO INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



03UTC: Typhoon WUTIP(02W) ,Category 4 US, slow-moving and forecast to weaken rapidly after 24hours, no threat to land


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Février 2019 à 06:49