03UTC: TC WALLACE(23S) fleetingly analyzed at 65knots(category 1 US) is now collapsing under vertical wind shear


Warning 17/JTWC


WARNING 17/JTWC
WARNING 17/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC WALLACE(23S)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 09, 2019:

Location: 16.2°S 114.4°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 090000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 082112Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. TC 23S IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 23S IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. AS TC 23S TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 23S TO
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
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WARNING 17/JTWC
WARNING 17/JTWC

0420UTC
0420UTC

0330UTC
0330UTC

0213UTC
0213UTC

0059UTC
0059UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 9 Avril 2019 à 09:54